How Trump's Iran gamble has created a crisis changing the global order

The US has attacked Iran for the eleventh night in a row, hitting places where planes and drones are stored. This happened after Iran attacked US air bases and nearby countries. Some of these countries have accused Iran of deliberately hitting water treatment plants, which are very important for people living there.

Both sides now say they are stopping the other from controlling the Strait of Hormuz. This is a very important waterway where 20% of the world's oil used to be transported before the war started. Ships carrying important goods like oil, gas, and fertiliser are now stopped.

The US military operation, called ‘Operation Epic Fury’, first aimed to change Iran's government. However, its goal has now changed to reopening the Strait of Hormuz and fixing the damage caused by the war started by the US and Israel. President Trump clearly underestimated how much Iran could handle difficulty, and he is now trying to end the conflict he started by using military force.

Trump had promised not to start wars, but his decision to bomb Iran in February with Israel was a surprising and aggressive move. He did not prepare the US for a war and did not seem to consider that Iran would block the Strait of Hormuz if attacked. His reasons for the decision were also unclear.

He believed he would be remembered as the president who solved the Iran problem quickly and without cost. However, this has been a major mistake. The US secretary of war, Pete Hegseth, claimed that early US strikes had removed Iran's leader, but changing the government now seems unlikely.

Trump underestimated Iran's ability to survive and overestimated the public's desire for change. After only five months, his actions are very unpopular in the US, similar to the Vietnam War. The conflict could grow into a larger regional war, with rebels in Yemen threatening to stop ships going to Saudi Arabia. Even Trump's businesses will be affected by this violence.

A temporary agreement, signed in June, gave a short break from attacks and planned for 60 days of talks. However, it failed when Iran fired on three commercial ships that did not use the shipping route approved by Tehran. According to one expert, when ceasefires are broken, leaders can either react to save the ceasefire or use the break as a reason to end it.

Trump chose the second option, calling Iran's leaders names and ending the ceasefire. Now, the US says its goal is to make sure oil shipments can pass through the Strait. It's important to remember that the Strait had not been closed for a long time before February. Ships travelled through it without any problems. The US is now trying to present a return to this situation as a success.

Iran and the US are still talking, and Iran has shown it wants to control the Strait permanently, possibly by charging ships to pass. The US is now faced with either a long, difficult war that keeps the Strait closed, or it must continue to escalate the conflict hoping to defeat Iran.

There are signs that Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu made a serious error in judging how likely Iran was to block the Strait. Netanyahu admitted that the problem of the Strait of Hormuz became clearer as the war continued. This was a surprising admission. Blocking the Strait was the kind of worst-case scenario that previous governments and most experts on Iran would have predicted.

However, the US government currently has very few experts on Iran. Trump has chosen to surround himself with people he trusts. Some officials who had experience negotiating with Iran were removed from their positions. Experts who understand Iran's system would have known that Iranian leaders are very different from Western business people and are extremely determined.

The rising price of oil is making everyday life more expensive and increasing the cost for governments to borrow money. If no agreement is reached by 2027, some predict that global economic growth could decrease significantly. Europe might be particularly affected because it has relied more on the Middle East for gas since the war in Ukraine. This could lead to shortages in the winter, reminding people of the oil crisis in the 1970s.

Many of Trump's ideas for solving the conflict seem to have been made up quickly. He suggested that the US could charge ships to use the Strait, even though other countries and even his own secretary of state said this would be against international law. The fact that tolls have been suggested shows a disregard for international rules. Many countries, including the US, Iran, and Israel, have not signed the UN convention on the laws of the sea.

Experts are now concerned that other shipping routes could become more militarised. Other countries might try to use important waterways as a bargaining chip, seeing how Iran is using the Strait of Hormuz. If countries like the US and Israel can attack them at any time, these nations may feel they have to use any means possible to protect themselves.