What is the US-Saudi Arabia nuclear deal and why is it causing concern?

The United States and Saudi Arabia have reached a significant agreement that will use American technology and knowledge to help the Gulf nation develop a civilian nuclear program. However, this development has raised concerns among countries in the Middle East and within Washington.

While many details of the deal are still unclear, a major worry is whether Saudi Arabia will gain the ability to enrich uranium within its own borders. This process is a key step in nuclear technology and raises questions about nuclear proliferation, meaning the spread of nuclear weapons.

The agreement, set to last for 30 years, is intended to meet Saudi Arabia's energy requirements. The oil-rich kingdom plans to use nuclear power to generate electricity. This would allow them to sell more of their oil reserves on the international market. American companies are expected to play a central role in building the country's nuclear facilities, preventing competitors like China and Russia from gaining influence.

This deal is potentially worth billions of dollars and continues a plan that was first considered during the previous administration. That earlier plan linked nuclear cooperation with Saudi Arabia establishing formal relations with Israel. However, recent events, including the Hamas attack on 7 October and the subsequent conflict in Gaza, have disrupted the possibility of normalisation between Israel and Riyadh. The current administration has decided to proceed with the nuclear deal without this broader agreement with Israel.

Reports suggest the deal allows for the possibility of building a uranium enrichment facility in Saudi Arabia. However, this would depend on a joint study by the US and Saudi Arabia to determine if it is truly necessary. The study is expected to take two years, meaning the decision on whether to approve domestic enrichment could fall to the next US president.

It is important to note that many countries with nuclear energy do not enrich uranium themselves. Instead, they import the necessary fuel for their reactors. Enriching uranium domestically is controversial because the process can theoretically be used to create fuel for nuclear weapons. The US has stated its intention to oversee any enriched uranium and spent fuel from Saudi Arabia's reactors to ensure it cannot be diverted for military purposes.

Concerns about the deal stem from warnings by nuclear non-proliferation experts that it could put Saudi Arabia on a path towards developing nuclear weapons. Saudi Arabia has previously indicated that it might pursue nuclear weapons if its regional rival, Iran, were to acquire them. The US is currently involved in efforts to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

US officials have dismissed these concerns, stating that the agreement will not create proliferation risks. They also mentioned a separate agreement on safeguards designed to ensure proper monitoring. However, some experts are worried that the current deal lacks the strict oversight found in previous nuclear agreements. It is reported that Saudi Arabia may not be subject to the same rigorous monitoring by the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), as other nations.

Previous agreements, like the one with the United Arab Emirates, included a commitment not to pursue enrichment or reprocess spent fuel, often called the 'gold standard'. The current Saudi-US agreement reportedly does not contain this provision, leading to fears that it could encourage other countries in the region to pursue similar nuclear capabilities, potentially triggering a regional arms race.

Members of the US Congress have also voiced concerns, suggesting that this deal could provoke a nuclear race in the Middle East and discourage Iran from limiting its own nuclear program. While Congress can vote to block the deal, it would require a strong majority to overcome a potential presidential veto, making it difficult to prevent the agreement from going into effect.